UN Warns Nuclear Arms Control Near Breaking Point

UN Disarmament Experts Warn: Why the Nuclear Arms-Control System Is at a Breaking Point

February 2026

UN disarmament experts are no longer using dramatic language for effect when they warn that the global nuclear arms-control system is at a “breaking point.” Their concern reflects a tangible and accelerating collapse of the rules, treaties and confidence-building mechanisms that for decades have helped prevent a renewed nuclear arms race.

On 6 February 2026, United Nations researchers and officials stressed that the international arms-control framework built since the Cold War is now weaker than at any point in recent history. Growing mistrust among major powers and the steady erosion of binding treaties have left the world dangerously close to a future with fewer limits and higher nuclear risks.

The End of New START: A Dangerous Turning Point

At the centre of the UN’s warning lies the expiration of New START, the last remaining nuclear arms-control treaty between the United States and Russia. Signed in 2010, New START capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads and established inspection regimes and data exchanges that allowed both sides to verify compliance.

With the treaty’s expiration and no replacement agreement in place, the world’s two largest nuclear-armed states—together possessing the vast majority of global nuclear weapons—are now operating without any legally binding limits on their arsenals.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described this moment as “grave,” cautioning that, for the first time in decades, no guardrails are governing US-Russia strategic nuclear forces. According to UN officials, this absence of constraints creates unprecedented uncertainty and raises the risk of miscalculation.

A Broader Collapse of Arms-Control Architecture

The demise of New START is not an isolated event. Experts at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) point to a broader pattern of treaty erosion over the past decade.

Key agreements that once stabilised nuclear relations have either collapsed or been weakened, including:

• The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty

• The Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty

• The Open Skies Treaty, which has suffered from withdrawals and reduced participation

Together, these developments have severely damaged what UNIDIR describes as the global “arms-control architecture.” Many of the mechanisms that limited escalation and managed nuclear risks during the Cold War no longer exist.

Rising Mistrust in a Fragmented Geopolitical Landscape

This erosion is unfolding amid a far more tense and fragmented geopolitical environment. Rivalries among major powers, proxy conflicts, cyber operations and regional wars have deepened suspicion and made cooperation increasingly difficult.

UN experts highlight mistrust as the central obstacle. Governments are less willing to share sensitive data, allow intrusive inspections or commit to new limits when they fear strategic disadvantage or treaty violations by rivals.

The challenge is further compounded by emerging technologies such as hypersonic weapons, advanced delivery systems and dual-use missile defences. These developments blur the distinction between conventional and nuclear capabilities, complicating verification and increasing uncertainty during crises.

The NPT Under Strain

The weakening of arms control has also placed the global non-proliferation regime under severe pressure. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)—opened for signature in 1968 and extended indefinitely in 1995—remains the cornerstone of international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear arms.

However, UNIDIR experts warn that the failure of nuclear-armed states to demonstrate clear and measurable progress on disarmament has fuelled frustration among non-nuclear states and civil-society organisations. This dissatisfaction is expected to dominate discussions at the upcoming NPT Review Conference in New York later this year, where many countries are preparing to challenge the lack of progress on disarmament obligations under Article VI.

Security Risks and the Return of Arms Racing

The consequences of weakening arms control extend far beyond legal frameworks. Without treaty-based limits and transparency measures, nuclear postures can become more opaque, decision-making timelines shorter, and the risk of miscalculation significantly higher.

Strategic analysts warn that in a world with more nuclear actors, more advanced weapons and increasingly complex technologies, the absence of stabilising agreements could allow regional crises—whether in Europe, the Middle East or Asia—to escalate rapidly. Some experts argue that the world may already be drifting toward a new and less predictable nuclear arms race, potentially involving not only the US and Russia but also China and other nuclear-armed states expanding or modernising their arsenals.

A Call to Action from the United Nations

UN officials have framed the current moment as both a warning and a call to action. Secretary-General Guterres has urged nuclear-armed states to re-engage in dialogue, adopt transparency and confidence-building measures, and explicitly rule out the first use of nuclear weapons.

He has also called for renewed commitment to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and for nuclear-armed states to translate long-standing disarmament promises into concrete, time-bound steps, including reductions in stockpiles. “Nuclear sabre-rattling must stop,” Guterres has repeatedly stressed.

Reasons for Cautious Hope

Despite the bleak outlook, UN disarmament experts emphasise that not all progress has stalled. Nuclear-weapon-free zones in regions such as Latin America, Africa and Central Asia continue to demonstrate that legal prohibitions can work when states share common security interests.

Meanwhile, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)—though rejected by nuclear-armed states—has succeeded in keeping humanitarian and ethical concerns at the centre of global debate. Growing engagement from younger generations, academic communities and civil-society groups is also injecting new energy into disarmament advocacy.

A System at the Edge

For now, the message from the UN disarmament community remains stark. Unless major powers reverse course, rebuild trust and re-establish credible limits on their nuclear forces, the world risks entering an era with fewer rules, more weapons and a dangerously shrinking margin for error.

The phrase “breaking point” is not rhetorical. It is a warning that the system designed to prevent nuclear catastrophe cannot be taken for granted, and that repairing it after failure would be far more difficult than preserving it today.